When Survival Means Waving the Heat Goodbye!
"The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is among the most vulnerable places in the world to climate change. The U.N. has highlighted the devastating toll that climate change will have on the region’s water supplies and food production systems, and its potential to create breeding grounds for terrorism and violent extremism. No country will be spared: The affluent Gulf nations face depleted freshwater resources within the next 50 years, while in conflict-ridden Iraq, average temperatures are soaring at a rate that is two-to-seven times faster than the global average. Food and water production systems across the Levant face imminent collapse." (Ranj Alaadin 2022)
In 2022, the annual population growth in the Arab World increased by 0.2 percentage points (+12.35 percent) since 2021. In total, the population growth amounted to 1.79 percent in 2022. This increase was preceded by a declining population growth. And that is because the population being counted that was ignored previously is the Afro Arab population. Egypt has the highest absolute number of heat-related deaths, with a burden of 2591 deaths per year ( table ). Iran has more than 1700 heat-related deaths per year! The Middle East has been hit the hardest by a rise in global heatwave deaths over the past three decades, scientists have found. Kuwait, Lebanon and Syria are among the countries where the rate of excess deaths due to extreme heat has jumped sharply. In the western Asia region including the Middle East and nearby countries, there were about 4,300 heat deaths in a typical summer in the 2010s, up from 2,400 in the 1990s.
Currently the annual death toll in the middle east of 2024 is projected to be 10,500!
Afro-Arabs or African Arabs are Arabs of full or partial African descent. These include primarily minority groups in the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, as well as Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Jordan. The term may also refer to various Arab groups in Africa. The countries of the Arab world are acutely exposed to the accelerating impacts of climate change, including soaring heat waves, declining precipitation, extended droughts, and rising sea levels. All of which have devastating effects on birth rates especially to those populations with less melanin protections. According to a recent study quoted by AlJazeera, the dramatic decline in fertility rate of non black Arabs is due to the changing nature of the household structure, economic growth and available contraception in short Arab women are being blamed. Much the same way white America blamed American women for its low birth rates until it was exposed that Western men are having a difficult time maintaining viable levels of sperm and increased hot days are lowering healthy and frequent births!
In fact declines in fertility rates are consistent across all Arab countries regardless of wealth. So its not about who is working as a stay at home mom or what gender is attending school! According to Spyridon Chouliaras, attending physician of reproductive medicine at Sidra Medical and Research Center in Doha, the trend of having smaller families is evident, but there is still a strong intent among Arab families to have multiple children. So the problem is not apparently one of choice. Climate-related hazards, including extreme heat, flooding, and wildfires, have been linked to certain health problems, such as anemia, eclampsia, low birth weight, preterm birth, and even miscarriage. The Middle East is already warming twice as fast as the global average, and is experiencing a rapidly changing climate that threatens the livelihoods well-being, and stability of its communities. This includes the ability to feed and grow families!
In a disturbing milestone, the first week of July 2023 marked the hottest week on Earth ever recorded. The Middle East was been particularly hard hit by the heatwave, which is expected to worsen in the summer of 2024. The scorching temperatures not only broke records but also brought severe consequences to the region. A study published in The Lancet sheds light on the gravity of the situation. If global warming continues, the number of heat-related deaths in the Middle East is projected to rise significantly. By 2050, heat-related deaths in the region could increase from an average of about two deaths per 100,000 people to about 200 per 100,000 people. The 21st century will be unbearably hot for the Middle East, which is warming twice as fast as the global average. If the trend continues, the average temperature in some areas will increase by four degrees by 2050.
High temperatures due to climate change. Increasingly high temperatures can harm fertility and birth rates. According to multiple international studies and most notably research by UCLA environmental economist Alan Barreca, sperm production falls in hot weather and this leads to lower birth rates. In the USA for every day over 85 degrees the Caucasian and fair skinned (most vulnerable) populations drops by 10,000. In 2050, scientists estimate that unless you have natural protection from the sun it will be very difficult to live in South Asia and the Persian Gulf, i.e. countries such as Iran, Kuwait and Oman.
A team of researchers led by Drs. Nathan Gianneschi and Kurt Lu at Northwestern University thought that applying melanin topically to skin injuries might aid wound healing. To test this hypothesis, they created nanoscale particles with a synthetic form of melanin. There is a hope this technology specifically created to heal sunburns will help people in these regions without significant melanin in their skin survive and avoid sun poisoning.
People with sun poisoning usually don’t know it because for the first six to twelve hours, it presents the same symptoms as a sunburn. In addition to mild sunburn symptoms, people with sun poisoning often experience:
blistering or peeling skin
severe redness and pain
fever and chills
dehydration
joint or muscle pain
nausea and vomiting
headaches
dizziness or fainting
With too much exposure, severe untreated sunburn can cause shock, organ failure (poor circulation to vital organs) and even death. Water scarcity is a major issue in Middle Eastern countries where . In Jordan, rising temperatures, droughts, and increased evaporation exacerbate the already dire situation. The response to climate change in Jordan lacks an integrated approach due to insufficient political will and capacity. Efforts to conserve water and improve water management must be effectively managed to reduce the impact of climate change on agricultural production and rural-urban migration.
Water scarcity is a problem in Lebanon as well, primarily due to poor management, which is made worse by climate change. Less snow and higher temperatures mean groundwater levels are going down – the main source of water for drinking and farming. Water shortages put a strain on infrastructure and management systems, threatening livelihoods and escalating tensions, as seen in the case of two men shot dead near Lebanon’s highest peak, Qornet el-Sawda, as a result of a long-running dispute over water supplies in the region. The influx of refugees has further strained water resources in Lebanon.
Palestine, on the other hand, faces complex challenges related to climate change and water scarcity that are mainly man made. Rising temperatures and potential declines in rainfall result in more frequent droughts, exacerbating the already dire situation. However, in addition to these challenges, Israel’s ongoing occupation policies have a profound impact on food systems and further compound the difficulties faced by Palestinians. Water competition and access remain critical issues in Palestine. Israel exerts control over all groundwater sources in the West Bank, thereby depriving Palestinians of access to the clean and reliable water sources necessary for their well-being. The limited jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority over a portion of the West Bank and the prolonged Israeli-enforced blockade on Gaza further impede effective climate and water management strategies in the region.
In addition to climate change and water scarcity, the Middle East faces a crippling energy shortage with far-reaching consequences. Despite its abundance of fossil fuels, the region’s energy landscape is marked by complexities in management, consumption, and distribution.
A primary concern is the region’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbates the effects of climate change. This reliance also makes the Middle East vulnerable to global energy market fluctuations. Political conflicts and regional instability further complicate the development of renewable energy sources and hinder the implementation of sustainable energy policies.
Strategic energy diversification and the adoption of renewable energy sources are critical to addressing these challenges. By embracing solar, wind, and other sustainable options, the Middle East can simultaneously reduce its carbon footprint, mitigate environmental damage, and foster economic growth. International collaboration and investment are essential to supporting this transition, ensuring a more sustainable energy future for the region, and contributing to global
Climate change poses a grave threat to the Middle East, amplifying existing vulnerabilities and contributing to the ongoing refugee crisis in Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have a significantly larger share of the world’s Muslims in 2050 compared with 2010. About 30% of the world’s Muslims are expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa in 2050, up from nearly 16% in 2010. The Middle East-North Africa region is predominantly Muslim, but as of 2010, only one-in-five Muslims lived in that part of the world. However, the share of the global Muslim population living in several Asian countries with large Muslim populations (such as Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh) is anticipated to decline between 2010 and 2050. While 62% of the world’s Muslims lived in Asia and the Pacific in 2010, 50% are projected to live in the region in 2050.
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