Bye, bye, baby? Birthrates are declining in Asia – here's why it matters?
China is undergoing a significant fertility decline. The latest census data indicates that China's population is decreasing by approximately 500,000 individuals annually. Despite previous claims of population growth until 2022, it appears that the anticipated mid-century population decline commenced as early as 2007. Considering the current rate of decline and the substantial elderly population over 60, projections suggest that China could see a reduction of 600 to 700 million people by 2050, nearly half of its present population.
But China is not alone there are over 40 countries many of them in Eurasia expected to lose half their populations by 2070 according to latest demographic research and climate change and its residual effects seems to be the overriding unifying factor! Countries including Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Thailand will see their populations halved and for many that number is a conservative one. To stall actual action against the real causes of the decline for the past decade leaders in order to protect profits garnered from the Petro pharmaceutical industries blamed women for their troubles!
They claimed more women in education and in the workforce, combined with the availability of contraception has led to a fall in fertility rates, but never looked at the economic needs of being able to raise and feed children in a society that requires two working parents to do so as a causal factor. With the added pressures of rising food prices, expensive housing and increased prenatal difficulties all related to climate stressors such as extreme weather events many don't see the way clear to have a large family in a society that would penalize their children for being born.
Due to projected significant population growth in various African countries by 2100, it will take longer for Africa to witness the effects of declining populations. Researchers predict that Nigeria, in particular, will emerge as the world's second most populous country with 800 million inhabitants by the year 2100. Consequently, during this transition, countries with a higher population of African descent will be more fortunate. Conversely, declining fertility rates indicate that nearly all non-African nations will experience substantial population reductions by the close of the century.
The rise in infertility rates and the necessity for assisted reproduction due to poor semen quality and/or oocyte failure have become significant health concerns. Additional signs of declining reproductive health include a global uptick in testicular cancer cases among young men and changes in twinning frequency. Moreover, there has been a noticeable decrease in legal abortion rates, indicating a decline in overall conception rates. Subtle changes in fertility rates were already noticeable around 1900, and most developed regions now have rates below what is needed to maintain their populations. It is believed that these reproductive health issues are partly associated with the increased human exposure to chemicals derived from fossil fuels, with certain African populations benefiting from Eumelanin in protecting DNA and fertility from these exposures. If the current infertility crisis is indeed linked to such exposures, decisive regulatory measures supported by unconventional, interdisciplinary research collaborations will be essential to reverse these trends.
If we fail to halt the reversal of the harmful effects of fossil fuels or continue to increase their usage, it will accelerate both the decline in population and the adverse impacts of climate change. By 2050, around three-quarters of developed countries are expected to experience birth rates below the replacement level, with population growth mainly occurring in the emerging economies of sub-Saharan African nations. The situation is exacerbated by climate change rendering parts of the Middle East uninhabitable and triggering mass climate migration towards Europe.
Prior to the 1970s, women in the wealthiest Asian nations such as South Korea, Japan, and China typically had more than five children each. However, there has been a significant shift in this trend. South Korea, for the eighth year in a row, has now reported the lowest fertility rate in the world! Before 2000, the number of newborns in Southeast Asia was three times higher than it is today. To reverse the decline in population, it is crucial for individuals aged 25 and above, who form a significant portion of these societies, to have more children. Unfortunately, the baby booms that occurred before 2000 have ceased, resulting in a sharp decline in birth rates in these countries. Within a short span of time, the pool of potential native parents capable of reversing this downward trend will have disappeared.
In the past 30 years, Viet Nam’s Total Fertility Rates (TFRs calculated as the number of children per woman) have nearly halved (from 3.80 children per woman in 1989 to 2.09 children per woman in 2019), contributing to a significant drop in the overall population growth rate. Vietnam is experiencing an average 2.3 percent decline in births yearly. In 2017 Vietnam's declining birthrate prompted the ending of the two-child policy. The move came too late to make a significant difference and the rising cost of living expenses still hinders bigger families. All of the region’s main states—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people.
Ironically the demographic decline from a US perspective omits the inclusion of many Asian nations in the economic calculations of the effect of the decline. Many global factors, including the foreign engagements of the United States have shaped the development of the Asian nations and category, and why, even though Asians can be brown, yellow, white, or black, an East Asian phenotype is viewed as denoting an “Asian” body in the United States and Europe. South Asians in the United States who comprise people originating from the countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka despite being a very large Asian group, Indians, and South Asians more broadly, tend to be erased or ignored within the Eurocentric perception of who is Asian. Including in discussions of anti-Asian violence, foreign aid and racism.
There is a common belief that "Asians" are a racial group characterized by East Asian phenotypical features (Nadal 2019). However, mainstream discourses, media outlets like the New York Times (as seen in Ramakrishnan 2023), other Asian American communities, and even Asian scholars and programs tend to exclude South Asians from the category of Asians. According to Jennifer Lee and Karthick Ramakrishnan (2020:1748), who are prominent Asian American scholars, their analysis of the 2016 National Asian American Survey reveals that "South Asians ... consider themselves Asian, but other groups [including other Asians] are much less likely to view them as Asian." This perception is often based solely on darker skin pigmentation, which interestingly plays a significant role in fertility. Research findings indicate that while the variation in fertility rates among different racial pairings is slightly reduced, it remains statistically significant. Notably, fertility rates are lowest among Asian and White couples compared to other interracial couples, despite the influences of nationality and culture!
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