NOAA reported that November 2023 was one of several months that contributed to the world’s record heat. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November 2023 was 2.59 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average.
As record-breaking heat impacted nearly the entire globe in 2023, scientists say 2024 will continue the trend with temperatures reaching new heights. Britain’s national weather service, the Met Office, expects next year’s average global temperature to finish between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C above average. If the long-range outlook is accurate, it would beat 2023’s record, which currently sits at around 1.34 °C, with about a month of data to go. Forecasters say this is not a surprise as the lagging effects of El Niño coincide with global climate change. The world could see another record-breaking warm year in 2024 as global temperatures are on a path to continue rising due to increase in emissions and the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon that peaks in winter and pushes up global mean temperatures to their peak, according to leading scientists.
2024 might become the first year in human history to surpass the critical 2.7°F (1.5°C) warming threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement. "The forecast is in-line with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2 °C per decade, and is boosted by a significant El Niño event. Hence, we expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession, and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C," Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said in a statement. If the year reached the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, it would challenge benchmarks agreed to in the Paris Agreement signed during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2015.
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