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Poland's breach of European migrant laws risks exacerbating conflicts with the EU. Many European nations worry that without migrant labor, natural population decline, a growing elderly demographic, and a shrinking workforce could lead to economic disaster. This concern is heightened by the possibility of African nations closing their borders, which would cut off Europe from vital resources.
Polish lawmakers have voted in favor of a bill that simplifies the process for security services to use weapons against migrants at the Belarus border. This legislation enjoys public support, yet critics argue it violates human rights. Poland's parliament has passed controversial measures to decriminalize the use of firearms by border guards in self-defense under certain conditions. Non-governmental organizations contend that these legal changes breach human rights standards, but the government insists they are necessary to safeguard Poland's border with Belarus from increasingly hostile migrant groups.
Last month, a 21-year-old soldier was fatally stabbed while attempting to stop migrants from entering the country illegally. Warsaw accuses Belarus of deliberately prompting Asian and North African Middle Eastern migrants to illegally enter Poland, aiming to destabilize the European Union.
Poland has been dealing with what it says is a form of hybrid warfare on the border since 2021, when large numbers of migrants started trying to cross illegally. Both Warsaw and the EU say Belarus and its ally Russia have been orchestrating the crisis by flying in migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, something Minsk and Moscow deny.
According to an Article from West Point's Combating Terrorism Center "Poland, alongside Hungary and Serbia, has attracted the attention of white supremacists worldwide due to being a predominantly homogeneous nation of white Christians governed by a socially conservative regime. A key attraction for violent far-right groups from around the globe is the annual Independence Day march organized by Polish far-right factions in Warsaw every November 11. Since the early 1990s, Poland has been a favored location for various violent far-right activities, including neo-Nazi concerts, "whites only" mixed martial arts (MMA) tournaments, and paramilitary training. The animosity these groups harbor towards racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, LGBTQI+ individuals, and other perceived adversaries like anti-fascists and liberal politicians is indicative of an escalating trend of division within Poland."
Earlier this month, Europe was hit by catastrophic floods that impacted two million people, turning neighborhoods and urban centers into muddy rivers. The death toll reached at least 24, with additional individuals reported missing. The strain on resources and the effects of climate change are evident throughout Europe. The planet is warming rapidly; 2023 was the warmest year on record, and 2024 may yet exceed it, as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Simply put, warmer air can retain more moisture, leading to more intense and frequent rainfall.
THE FUTURE OF POLAND: DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS
Last year 272,451 babies were born, the lowest number in modern Polish history. In 2023 it was calculated that Polish women on average have 1.4 babies each, one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, despite years of attempts by the hard-right government then in power to encourage more breeding. 2024 is expected to see even lower birth rates in Poland. The birth rate in Poland has decreased by 40% over the last 30 years. Many fear the consequences further down the line.
Factors such as economic uncertainty, a lack of job security, and changing social attitudes mean that more women are choosing not to have children.
Some attribute the declining birth rate in Poland to the country's strict abortion laws. Since 2021, there has been a significant decrease in births that many Western nations should pay attention to. In Poland, abortion is only allowed in cases of rape, incest, or when the mother's life is at risk. Agnieszka Szpila, a writer and activist raising two severely disabled children, highlights how this has negatively impacted birth rates. She explains, "Women are extremely fearful of finding themselves in my situation. The mother is the only one a (disabled) child can depend on, not the society, the country, or the system."
"Until my children are 18, they'll be in school. Afterwards, they won't attend school and will stay with me indefinitely. I can't live the life I had planned." This scenario is common in Asian nations like China and Japan. Poland's working-age population may decrease by 40% by 2050 unless it welcomes more migrants from outside Eastern Europe, as per a recent state statistics office study. The report underscores the issues of a declining birth rate and the contentious political discussions on immigration.
Estimates suggest that Poland's labor shortage could reach up to 1.5 million workers by 2026.
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