The Rush To Reclaim Melanin...Racial disparities in fertility outcomes are starkly evident in the current global trends showing a rapid decline in life expectancy among white and Asian populations compared to black and Latino communities.
While infertility clinicians primarily focus on birth rather than mortality, the care they provide is not exempt from unjust racial inequalities. The perceived decline in white male fertility rates has contributed to a surge in anti-black sentiments and far-right ideologies, bordering on the resurgence of fascism, neo-colonialism, and Nazism. The numerous obstacles to accessing infertility treatment, including varying insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket expenses, pose a significant risk to newly infertile men, particularly those in Western and East Asian countries, where climate-related economic impacts are creating disparities in healthcare provision.
In the latest survey, 94% of American adults now support marriages between Black and White individuals, a significant increase from 87% in 2013. This current percentage represents a record high in Gallup's data, which has been collected over more than sixty years. When the question was first posed in 1958, only 4% of respondents approved. A recent study conducted in 2024 indicates a rise in the number of mixed-race couples in France over the past few years. The growing prevalence of mixed marriages in Europe is largely attributed to the substantial migration of people from non-EU countries. The prevailing cultural trend is now shifting towards assimilation, acculturation, and social integration.
China’s latest statistics reveal a decrease of over 3 million in the total population in 2023. The country saw 9.0 million births and 11-15 million deaths. Births have continued to sharply decline since 2016, dropping by more than 60% in just nine years, while deaths have slightly increased. Data from 2024 highlights concerning trends in Chinese birth and death rates (per 1,000 capita) since 1985, demonstrating the recent significant drop in birth numbers and the ongoing total population decline that began in 2022 when China acknowledged that deaths surpassed births.
With an estimated birth count of 9 million in China, it indicates a total fertility rate of less than 1.0. This suggests that China is heading towards a situation akin to South Korea, which is projected to have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 0.62 by 2024. The trend indicates that China is facing a more pronounced population decline compared to Japan, which began its demographic transition much earlier in the mid-1990s. Japan previously benefitted from a thriving China, which boosted demand for Japanese exports and investments, supporting Japan's economy during a period of sluggish domestic demand. Recently, a global controversy emerged on various international social media platforms when it was perceived that both China and South Korea were reportedly seeking black males to address their fertility challenges.
Guangzhou China is witnessing many Afro-Chinese marriages, but the mainland's lack of citizenship rights for husbands and a crackdown on foreign visas means families live in fear of being torn apart! Political and economic changes in post-communist China have driven massive human movement both inside and outside the country. Since the late 1970s, institutional reforms and market evolution in China have created a new “mobility regime”. Population movements have been deregulated and even encouraged in some regions for development needs. Interracial Marriages Between Africans and Chinese on the Rise as 1 Million Chinese Live in Africa. A marginal rebound in Chinese fertility rates may occur because some marriages postponed by now lifted COVID restrictions may take place and lead to a corresponding increase in fertility. (Out-of-wedlock births remain rare in China, hence the number of new marriages impacts near-term fertility rates.) Moreover, 2024 is the Chinese Year of the Dragon, often considered a fortuitous year to have children. But a potential further decline is likely in 2025 and beyond.
There is no indication that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in China will rebound and increase in the future. South Korea currently has the lowest TFR at 0.72, and other major Chinese cities like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Beijing, and Shanghai also have TFRs that are at or below this level. Instead of slowing down, their population declines are accelerating. In contrast, Japan, which was once a high-fertility country among advanced Asian economies, is projected to experience a population decline by 2100.
Asia's long-term economic outlook is cast into doubt by these significant demographic shifts. How feasible is it to boost household consumption when the number of consumers is decreasing by millions annually, especially considering the rapid decline in the most consumption-driven group, newborns? Efforts to stabilize the housing market are also facing major challenges. Looking ahead, the possibility of these countries surpassing the size of the US economy at market exchange rates seems unlikely. Unless they can reverse the declining fertility rates, a feat no nation with a rate below 2.1 has achieved, they will never outgrow the US economy.
Climate change is a consequence of the negative impacts caused by our continuously growing influence on global ecosystems. Despite this, some economists (including Elon Musk) argue that declining birth rates could lead to a decrease in the workforce and consumer base, potentially hindering economic progress. However, a decrease in population could pave the way for a future characterized by more opportunities and a flourishing, biodiverse environment. We are currently at a critical juncture where we have the power to shape what comes next. We can either uphold the current economic model and persist in pursuing endless growth on a planet with finite resources, or we can acknowledge the warning signs of an overburdened planet, take action to prevent environmental disasters, and opt for a new definition of prosperity that prioritizes fairness and the preservation of a thriving natural world. The issue with population decline lies not in the decline itself, but in whose populations are experiencing this decline!
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